Curse

Kumu Honua · Dec 22, 2009, 04:09 PM // 16:09

133 runs so far. No bear.

2574 cc's though. Can't complain too much. Other than being bored out of my mind with the quest.

Mustache Mayhem · Dec 22, 2009, 04:24 PM // 16:24

Quote:

Originally Posted by deejaysteve

Finally got one! About 300 runs last year, 53th run this year. (know from snowman summoners)
I'm not good in posting pictures,but give it a try:

grats

.......... that's what I'm talkin bout willis

snoozer80 · Dec 22, 2009, 04:24 PM // 16:24

I made 46 runs so far, and no MPB. I will be trying until WIntersday final. If I wont get it to cheer me up I'll open all of my 100 Gifts from Nicholas i keep for special moment.

isildorbiafra · Dec 23, 2009, 02:08 AM // 02:08

110 runs sofar since the event strated. 9 stacks of shards; but still no MPB. Tomorrow i'll give it another go.

go cubs · Dec 23, 2009, 06:20 AM // 06:20

4 stacks of shards now, about...80ish runs...i keep tellin myself that I'll get one lol...someone stop me

Divine Ashes · Dec 23, 2009, 07:36 AM // 07:36

I'm up to around 70 runs or so....5 stacks of shards...no luck so far but theres plenty of time left until the finale

Gli · Dec 23, 2009, 07:43 AM // 07:43

200 runs using 2 rather small GW windows on my secondary monitor while I'm working on my primary.

Of course, no bear, but the 14 stacks of shards alone are going to be worth the extremely effortless semi-afk farming, not to mention the 1,000 consumables.

XyphoidProcess · Dec 23, 2009, 07:30 PM // 19:30

Quote:

Originally Posted by deejaysteve

Finally got one! About 300 runs last year, 53th run this year. (know from snowman summoners)
I'm not good in posting pictures,but give it a try:

Did you seriously get that polar bear on your 53th run?

Rexion · Dec 23, 2009, 10:05 PM // 22:05

Quote:

Originally Posted by XyphoidProcess

Did you seriously get that polar bear on your 53th run?

extreme luck.
the person that does 353 runs has the same drop rate as the person that does 17 runs.
it's all luck.

XyphoidProcess · Dec 23, 2009, 10:12 PM // 22:12

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rexion

extreme luck.
the person that does 353 runs has the same drop rate as the person that does 17 runs.
it's all luck.

Well, I hope I get as lucky as he did, if not, luckier.

texeasons · Dec 24, 2009, 03:04 AM // 03:04

almost at 6 stacks of shards now, no bear

. I just want one to have. I won't sell it if I get one, why can't anet let me see those wonderful gold letters pop out of the chest?

Martin Alvito · Dec 24, 2009, 03:09 AM // 03:09

Quote:

Originally Posted by XyphoidProcess

Did you seriously get that polar bear on your 53th run?

Most of the people that got one last year got one by 50 runs.

Most of the people that did 500-1000 runs never got one.

You can infer that the drop chance is tiny, that the vast majority of players do a small number of runs and that only a few players do a large number of runs. In short, it's all luck.

XyphoidProcess · Dec 24, 2009, 03:12 AM // 03:12

I saw the thread from last year and there seemed to be a lot more drops. Did the drop rate decrease?

Martin Alvito · Dec 24, 2009, 03:56 AM // 03:56

I'd bet that there are fewer people farming it for two reasons:

- We now know that the drop rate is terrible
- Fewer players than there were last year.

That would explain the observation.

Gli · Dec 24, 2009, 07:22 AM // 07:22

If my in-game social circle is the least bit representative, Martin is right. Last year, practically everyone on my guild and friends list was stubbornly trying to beat the odds and get one. This year, I'm the only one.

texeasons · Dec 24, 2009, 07:23 AM // 07:23

I farmed last year, over 500 runs. I would do it again if I had the time. Close to 100 runs now, more than 7 stacks of shards. Still no bear.

Tar Ionwe · Dec 24, 2009, 07:41 AM // 07:41

I've probably done the run around 100 times and no bear but I don't mind it really, I like all the candy canes you get. Those will come in handy for those fail PuGs for FoWSC lol.

texeasons · Dec 24, 2009, 09:55 AM // 09:55

I can't say that I don't mind not getting one, cause I really want one. But all the Wintersday treats do give a buffer to make not getting one a bit easier. Haven't figured out if I want to sell the shards or trade for gifts.

disarm76 · Dec 24, 2009, 06:16 PM // 18:16

Well, I surely am farming less since I got one last year. Sold for 1600e which good part was stolen when I got hacked

XyphoidProcess · Dec 24, 2009, 07:48 PM // 19:48

Quote:

Originally Posted by disarm76

Well, I surely am farming less since I got one last year. Sold for 1600e which good part was stolen when I got hacked

How many runs did it take you last year?